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In the crush of Catholic Church news in the week since Pope Francis died, a theme keeps appearing in social media memes and quotes from the commentariat: hope, even optimism, that the next pontiff will be a true conservative, someone from the ranks of what was a passionate traditionalist opposition to Pope Francis.

“Conservative Wisconsin bishop who could become first American Pope,” was the Daily Mail Online headline about Raymond Burke, a staunch advocate for the traditional Latin Mass. The Reverend Gerald Murray, a conservative commentator, told Newsmax TV that the cardinals selecting the new Pope are “going to return to a more John Paul II-, Benedict-style and substance of governance in the church”.

It may be so much wishful thinking.

Some arch-conservatives are campaigning to propel one of their own to the forefront of discussions over Pope Francis’ successor. Burke is among those whose name has placed high on some circulating lists, for unspecified reasons. Other hardline conservatives, including Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea and Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, have managed to land among the favourites with the gambling firm William Hill.

But close church-watchers say the rumour mill about a hard-right post-Pope Francis turn rather reflects the built-up longings of a small but passionate, devoted and loud segment of the American church.

After enduring a Pope for more than a decade whom some saw as damaging to the faith, American conservatives think this might be their moment.

The faithful confess after visiting the tomb of Pope Francis to pay their respects at St Mary Major Basilica in Rome. Photo / Washington Post

“A large number of American conservative Catholics would basically dream of having Cardinal Burke as the next Pope, but they’re disconnected to reality,” said Alejandro Bermúdez, a long-time figure in American conservative Catholic media who is consulting for the news site Catholic Vote.

A senior Vatican official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to frame internal discussions dismissed Burke and Sarah – and candidates like them – out of hand. “There is no space for them in the [minds of] the vast majority of the cardinals. They’ve got zero chance.”

Of Turkson, a senior cleric who speaks six languages and is a favourite of traditionalists, the official noted that his removal by Pope Francis from a senior position in 2021 appeared to diminish his chances.

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Several other Vatican-watchers agreed.

The Reverend Thomas Reese, an American priest who has written several books about the inner workings of the Catholic Church and has closely followed papal conclaves, called reports of an ultraconservative front-runner “nonsense”. Some 80% of the cardinals were appointed by Pope Francis, Reese told the Washington Post, “and they are not going to elect someone who is then going to stand up and say that the Francis papacy was a disaster and we’re going back to the old church. That is not going to happen”.

Reese said he thinks cardinals will look this time for a moderate. But what does that word mean? To some US conservatives, it means backing off things that seem to demote or dismiss traditional practices or doctrine: removing limitations Pope Francis put on the Latin Mass; refraining from things like establishing special policies around blessing LGBTQ couples; no futzing around with rules and traditions – such as appointing so many cardinals that the number is now over the norm.

The Reverend Robert Sirico, a Michigan-based priest-commentator who went from same-sex marriage advocate to free-market conservative, said he thinks most US conservatives want a compromise on matters like the traditional Latin Mass, the ancient form of Catholic worship that Pope Francis strictly limited in 2021, saying it was becoming a sign of rebellion against the modern church. The Mass is said in Latin with the priest facing away from the congregation.

“Overall, conservative Catholics would just like some clarity and theological substance from Rome,” he wrote in an email to the Post. “I have heard from ‘folks in the pew’ that they would also appreciate clear theological teaching on a host of matters (not all related to the hot-button issues) rather than what appears to have been an obsession with politics.”

Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller, a long-time Francis critic, said it was inappropriate to separate cardinals into “these wrong categories, between conservative and liberal. Because Jesus didn’t found two wings [of the church] ... there’s one church and the church is united in the faith in Jesus Christ. And there is no conservative baptism or the progressive baptism,” he said in an interview with the Post.

Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller poses for a portrait in his office near St Peter's Square in Vatican City. Photo / Washington Post

Yet some senior church conservatives have been extremely vocal in lobbying before the conclave, seeing the coming election as crucial to their bid to redirect the church after 12 years of Pope Francis’ “open door,” through which he reached out to groups including LGBTQ+ people and divorced and remarried Catholics.

Some relatively conservative cardinals are considered serious candidates, led by Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary. But Erdo was never seen as part of the anti-Pope Francis set of archconservative bishops and cardinals who were extremely vocal in their criticism of the Pope, and who Pope Francis, in his last years, began to punish through demotions and removal of perks.

Marco Politi, a long-time Vatican commentator, told the Post that “behind the scenes”, the “low-level helpers of the conservatives are busy” promoting the idea around the conclave that Pope Francis’ papacy was “a disaster”, he said. The point is to “intimidate the reformers. We are in the first stage of the manoeuvres.”

“As we say in Italy, ‘It’s just tricks for the stupid’,” Politi said, in response to the circulation of names like Sarah and Burke.

The promotion of conservative candidates from some corners started almost immediately after Pope Francis’ death was announced. “Meet Cardinal Robert Sarah, who’s in the running to be the next Pontiff. He’s conservative, pro-life, anti-woke,” far-right influencer Ian Miles Cheong wrote on X on April 21, the day Pope Francis died.

“Already Cardinal Robert Sarah is trending,” The Pillar, a popular US Catholic news site, wrote of the Guinean cleric who strongly opposes priestly blessings of same-gender couples, noting the uptick in chatter while downplaying Sarah’s prospects.

Since then, some outlets have also sought to link Burke and President Donald Trump – apparently based on previous, flattering statements Burke has made about Trump, but also absent any evidence that the President has expressed a papal preference.

Messages left for the White House press office as to the President’s views on the conclave, and Burke, weren’t returned.

Social media campaigns are also running rampant. A 2019 video of one of the leading liberal contenders – Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines – singing John Lennon’s ballad Imagine has gone viral. Some conservatives have shared it as evidence that Tagle is unworthy of being selected Pope because of the song’s lyrics, which include the lines “Imagine there’s no heaven ... and no religion, too”.

In pre-conclave meetings among cardinals that began last week – known as congregations – some conservatives have been lobbying for a traditionalist Pope. Bishop Athanasius Schneider, a conservative auxiliary bishop of Astana, Kazakhstan, has been advocating for a leader free from “the materialistic, morally depraved and anti-Christian globalist agenda of this world” with a willingness to defend “the integrity of ... Church discipline”.

“May all true sons and daughters of the Church implore the miracle of the election of a new Pope, who will be fully Catholic, fully Apostolic and fully Roman,” Schneider wrote in an open letter.